The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has stated that the operational expansion of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals is revolutionising Nigeria’s downstream oil sector, significantly reducing the nation’s dependence on imported petroleum products while strengthening economic growth and foreign exchange earnings.
In its latest review of Nigeria’s fuel market and regulatory landscape, the EIU noted that the refinery has transformed a sector that was previously heavily reliant on imported fuel despite Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest crude oil producer.
According to the report, the refinery supplied nearly 80 per cent of domestic petrol demand in April and produced sufficient volumes to meet local consumption needs as it continued to move toward full operational capacity.
The EIU described Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry before the commencement of the refinery’s operations as
long dysfunctional,” noting that the country remained largely dependent on expensive imported fuel despite producing close to 1.5 million barrels of crude oil daily.
The report observed that the refinery has reduced fuel import dependence, improved domestic product availability and strengthened Nigeria’s balance of payments through lower import requirements and increasing exports of refined petroleum products.
“The gradual ramp-up of the 650,000 barrel-per-day Dangote refinery since May 2023 has transformed Nigeria’s long dysfunctional downstream sector,” the report stated.
“The country’s main refineries, all state-owned, had been inoperative for years and Nigeria was almost entirely reliant on costly imported fuel.”
The EIU further projected that the refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity, coupled with planned expansion projects, would provide significant support for Nigeria’s economy and foreign exchange earnings over the medium and long term.
“Meanwhile, the attainment of full capacity at, and an increase in exports from, the Dangote refinery will support real GDP growth and foreign exchange earnings in 2026 and 2027 and beyond, as a planned doubling of the plant’s output comes on stream around the end of the decade,” the report added.
Industry analysts said the refinery is rapidly positioning Nigeria as a major refining and export hub, reshaping energy trade patterns across Africa and reducing the risks associated with dependence on imported petroleum products.
The EIU also noted that the refinery’s growth coincides with key reforms in Nigeria’s downstream sector, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the adoption of market-driven pricing mechanisms.
However, the report pointed out that the shift from a fuel import-driven system to large-scale domestic refining has generated resistance from interests connected to the previous import regime.
The latest dispute followed the decision of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to ease restrictions on petrol imports despite the refinery’s increasing capacity to meet local demand.
In response, Dangote Industries initiated legal action, arguing that continued approval of fuel imports undermines investments in local refining and runs contrary to the objectives of the Petroleum Industry Act, which seeks to promote domestic refining and reduce import dependence.
Analysts maintained that the availability of large-scale refining capacity within Nigeria has strengthened the country’s energy security and reduced vulnerability to external supply disruptions and foreign exchange volatility.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) also warned against unrestricted fuel imports, stressing that such a policy could undermine Nigeria’s industrialisation efforts and discourage investment in local refining.
Chief Executive Officer of the CPPE, Muda Yusuf, noted that Nigeria’s longstanding reliance on imported fuel had contributed to pressure on foreign reserves, exchange-rate instability and fiscal leakages.
The refinery’s influence is also becoming evident in Nigeria’s broader economic indicators.
Earlier this month, S&P Global Ratings cited increased domestic refining capacity and rising hydrocarbon exports among the key factors supporting Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating upgrade, the first such improvement in 14 years.
Beyond Nigeria, analysts increasingly view the Dangote Refinery as a strategic industrial asset for Africa, where many countries remain dependent on imported fuel despite growing demand from transportation, manufacturing and power generation sectors.